Daniel Kahneman on Cutting Through the Noise

“you find variability within individuals, depending morning, afternoon, hot, cold. A lot of things influence the way that people make judgments: whether they are full, or whether they’ve had lunch or haven’t had lunch affects the judges, and things like that.

Now, it’s hard to say what there is more of, noise or bias. But one thing is very certain — that bias has been overestimated at the expense of noise. Virtually all the literature and a lot of public conversation is about biases. But in fact, noise is, I think, extremely important, very prevalent.”

“there is one thing that we know that improves the quality of judgment, I think. And this is to delay intuition. Delaying intuition until the facts are in, at hand, and looking at dimensions of the problem separately and independently is a better use of information. Break the decision up. But it’s a matter of planning how you’re going to make the decision, and making it in stages, and not acting without an intuitive certainty that you are doing the right thing. But just delay it until all the information is available.”

“AI is developing faster than anybody could have anticipated — no question. And if it continues to develop at that rate, meaning a lot faster than we expect, then things are going to happen relatively quickly.”

“Without sense or whims, and without the perceptual apparatus that we have and the ability to cause things by acting on the world, they can’t be exactly like us. But that sense of understanding . . . nobody actually today would, I think, claim that even the most sophisticated programs have it.”